The current economic picture shows mixed signals, which may keep mortgage rates stable:
Fed’s cautious approach: “The Fed’s March 19 decision to hold rates steady, paired with [its] ‘wait-and-see’ approach’” to the new administrations policies “suggests [it’s] not rocking the boat yet,” Glick says. This careful stance helps maintain current rate levels.
- Modest economic growth: Lenders may hold rates steady if the economy continues at the current pace without triggering inflation concerns. “As long as [the 10-year Treasury] yield hangs around current levels, we’re likely looking at a flatline around 6.5% to 6.7%,” Glick predicts.
Economic indicators to watch in the coming weeks
Mortgage professionals recommend watching five factors closely if you’re buying a home soon:
10-year Treasury yield: "[This is] the heartbeat of mortgage rates,” explains Glick. “If it climbs, rates follow; if it drops, you might catch a break.”
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): This inflation gauge remains a top Federal Reserve priority. Higher inflation numbers could prevent rate cuts, while cooling inflation might encourage them.
- Jobs reports: The April 4 employment report could impact the market. “If unemployment increases and the economy shows [more] signs of a slowdown, you’ll get lower mortgage rates,” says Dhingra. Strong job numbers might keep rates higher.
- Consumer spending: Reduced consumer spending often signals economic cooling. “In response, mortgage rates may start to come down,” Calixto says.
- Federal Reserve signals: The next Fed meeting isn’t until May. But any statements or hints from Fed officials could move markets and mortgage rates.
The bottom line
Mortgage rates in April will likely stay steady, according to the experts we spoke to. They might ease later in 2025, but waiting could backfire if home prices rise or inventory tightens.
Your best move? Consult a few lenders now to understand your options. “Focus on your affordability. If you find a home that fits your needs and the monthly payment is manageable, that’s a signal it may be the right time to buy. Get pre-approved to know what you qualify for and be ready to act quickly. Remember, you can always refinance later if rates fall.
Please call me with any questions.